Sushi, foot shooting, and the house of cards

Corbett | August 1, 2008 7:03 PM

It's a bit depressing being back in Taipei this time. The economy feels slow, unless you're eating at the new Japanese restaurant, Mitsui, in the basement floor of the Fubon building on the corner of Tunhua and Civic Blvd. Lunch there starts at NT$1500 and goes up. That was opened up by Ellie Lai, the very lovely flautist who I produced in the US many years ago, and who married into a super wealthy family. Ellie and I used to go to the sushi restaurant next door to Westlake Studios in LA where we were recording her tracks with Jorge Calandrelli (an old friend who now is hooked up with Yoyo Ma, Tan Dun, and that Crouching Dragon fame), and Ellie ordered this giant platter of sushi for like 10 people - and finished it all. Wow. I was thinking about that moment while eating a piece of NT$200 sushi at her restaurant. At Mitsui's current prices, that platter would've cost me $300 bucks.

So Taipei is dead slow. I was having this why-is-this-place-so-dead conversation over cigars with the guys who invented TS-CDMA before the Chinese took it and made their own version. These guys were complaining that all the other cities in Asia have improved dramatically, but that Taipei still looks and feels exactly as drab as it did 10 years ago, except for one really tall stack of take out food containers over near Warner Village.

Then I watch TV, and have to shut it off because everyone is complaining. Then I take taxis and have to listen to the drivers complain to me about how tough it is. Then I have to tune out at dinners where Taiwanese friends are lamenting on how they've missed to boat to China. What I don't understand is c'mon guys this has been coming straight at you for at least 10 years, but no one was looking, and now you have to stop staring at your bellybuttons and see that you are way behind what's happening in the world of now.

But is what's happening in China really that happening? I keep telling people it's a big house of cards. I keep saying, just peel back that thin veneer and you'll see that not a lot has changed, and I keep reminding people that you can't believe in smoke and mirrors. I keep my backup plan backed up at all times. They are boxing us real estate and financial guys into little squares, they're running small margin operations out of business, they are pissing a lot of people off with the closures of factories near Beijing, and they are shooting themselves in the foot, again and again. There's sure a lot of foot shooting going on over there. Maybe that can be a new sport. Anyway, it's refreshing to hear someone who is a respected authority on China come out and say "Hey, wake up everyone, China is probably not going to become the next superpower!"

This recent article by John Pomfret, called A Long Wait at The Gate To Greatness, drives home some important points that make a lot of sense if you are over here watching all the foot shooting.

He says there's too many constraints built into China, which is absolutely true, and that there are four big reasons that "China is more likely to remain the muscle-bound adolescent of the international system than to become the master of the world." I like that analogy a lot. The reasons he points out are: dire demographics, an overrated economy, environmental issues, and their ideology. He's right on all four points. This place is a mess. It's also fascinating, exciting, and vibrant, but it's still a house of cards. If someone sneezes...

Now maybe this kind of reality check right before the China's big moment will give the Taiwanese (and the rest of the world for that matter) some hope that they can at least get back in the economic race rather than whine and complain and give up. Maybe this will be a wake up call to other nations as well that India's right around the corner, and that the government in the US need to get things back in gear, now that they've caused their own recession fueled by greed and laziness.

It seems pretty obvious that when you get lazy, you get left behind. Get too greedy, and people go other places. Get too arrogant, and people laugh. Upset people, and they go away. There's lessons here for everyone.

Category: Mr. Asia

Comments (2)

Comments

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Hang

August 15, 2008 1:03 PM

Being the next superpower or not does not bother Chinese at all. But it bothers the west a lot. Why? I'm scratching my head.

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corbett

August 20, 2008 11:00 AM

Good point. I think it has a lot to do with the speed of change in China, and a lack of information in the West. Still, you have to admit, China is quite focused on showing the rest of the world see what it can do.

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